As the nation grapples with the ongoing pandemic, the flu season has been remarkably mild this year. While COVID-19 has claimed nearly 525,000 American lives, the number of flu-related cases and fatalities has drastically decreased, particularly among children. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), only one child has succumbed to the flu this season in the United States. This is a stark contrast to previous years, where hundreds of pediatric deaths were reported.
The CDC’s latest weekly report notes: “No new influenza-associated pediatric deaths were reported during week 8. The total for the 2020-21 season is one.” In the 2019-20 season, for instance, 195 children lost their lives to the flu. Mask-wearing and social distancing measures have significantly decreased the spread of the influenza virus. Lynnette Brammer, who leads the CDC’s domestic influenza surveillance team, highlights that just 0.1 percent of flu tests are positive this season, compared to the typical 20 to 30 percent in prior years.
Flor Munoz, a member of the American Academy of Pediatrics’ infectious diseases committee, stated, “The global decline of flu cases indicates that mask usage has had a profound effect on influenza transmission.” For context, the 2018-19 flu season recorded 144 pediatric deaths, while the 2017-18 season saw 188.
Adults are also experiencing a significant drop in flu-related deaths this year, with approximately 450 deaths reported compared to around 22,000 last year. Epidemiologist Aaron Milstone from Johns Hopkins University remarked, “This clearly demonstrates that measures like masking, distancing, and hand-washing are effective.” He posed an interesting question: “How much willingness will people have to continue these practices to prevent influenza, alongside COVID?”
Experts caution that the next flu season could be more severe. Scientists are facing challenges in determining which strain of the virus is currently dominant, complicating vaccine development for the upcoming year. “They may not guess the right strains for the vaccine,” warns Andrea Kovacs, head of pediatric infectious diseases at the University of Southern California. She also notes that it isn’t too late for a flu surge this season, especially if COVID restrictions are eased. “We could see a small, but late, flu season,” Kovacs adds, “it’s just hard to predict.”
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In summary, the current flu season has seen an unprecedented drop in fatalities, particularly among children, largely attributed to mask-wearing and social distancing measures. However, experts warn of potential challenges in the upcoming flu season regarding strain prediction and the possibility of a late surge.