Vaccine hesitancy and emerging variants lead experts to conclude that true “herd immunity” may be out of reach.
At the outset of the pandemic, the concept of “herd immunity” was frequently discussed. Some argued for achieving it “naturally” through widespread infection and fatalities, while many believed vaccination would be the key. However, recent discussions suggest that the U.S. is unlikely to attain this goal.
Over half of American adults have received at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose, which is commendable. Yet, as reported by The New York Times on May 3, 2021, “daily vaccination rates are declining, and there is a broad agreement among scientists and public health experts that the herd immunity threshold is not achievable—at least not in the near future, and possibly not at all.”
“The virus is not likely to disappear,” stated Dr. Samuel Harrison, an evolutionary biologist at a prominent university. “Our aim should be to manage it so that it evolves into a mild infection.”
Dr. Harris often referred to specific percentage targets necessary for achieving herd immunity, but such discussions have diminished recently. “People were misunderstanding the idea, believing that infections wouldn’t decrease until we hit some magical herd immunity figure,” he explained. “That’s why we’re shifting away from the classic definition. If we vaccinate enough individuals, infection rates will decline.”
The primary reasons experts cite for the unlikelihood of achieving herd immunity are the emergence of new variants and vaccine hesitancy. Given the rapid mutation of the virus, experts estimate that at least 80% of the population would need to be vaccinated to reach herd immunity. This is complicated by recent surveys indicating that about 30% of Americans remain hesitant to get vaccinated, making the math challenging.
Moreover, experts highlight that even if the U.S. achieves herd immunity on a broad scale, communities with high levels of vaccine hesitancy will still be vulnerable. As Dr. Emily Chen, an epidemiologist, noted, “the virus doesn’t discriminate; it will spread to those areas regardless of vaccination rates elsewhere.”
Another key point is that achieving herd immunity in the U.S. is irrelevant if other countries do not reach similar levels of vaccination.
So, if herd immunity is no longer the target, what are we aiming for?
“Our goal should be to minimize severe outbreaks,” explained Dr. Mark Thompson, an evolutionary biologist. The most optimistic scenario is that COVID-19 becomes akin to the seasonal flu, but some individuals may still suffer from “long COVID.” Nevertheless, on a national scale, these cases are not expected to overwhelm the healthcare system, which many see as a positive development, though it remains a concern for those affected by long COVID.
Dr. Sarah Jenkins, Director of the Global Health Initiative, stated that realistically, we can “significantly reduce” COVID-19 transmission through vaccination, but there will still be pockets of unvaccinated individuals in the U.S., similar to those that cause measles outbreaks.
Despite the challenges, there is hope. Dr. Alex Rivera, Dean of the Public Health School at a leading university, tweeted, “As summer approaches… we may not achieve herd immunity, but infection rates will likely be low, vaccinated individuals will remain relatively safe, and with improved treatments, infections may become less severe, allowing life to return to a semblance of normalcy.”
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In summary, experts now believe that achieving herd immunity against COVID-19 in the U.S. is highly unlikely due to vaccine hesitancy and the emergence of new variants. The focus has shifted toward managing the virus to minimize severe outbreaks and ensuring that vaccinated individuals remain safe.