I don’t want to presume for all grandparents, but those in our lives have been quite eager to reconnect with our kids. My mother and stepfather reside in Utah, while my partner’s parents are in Idaho. They’ve been making the best of the situation with FaceTime and phone calls. My mother-in-law has been especially great about reading stories to our six-year-old, and I’ll admit that having Grandma read over video has likely saved my sanity after months of being together in the house. However, it’s been a long time since Grandma and Grandpa have seen our children, and as vaccines are being distributed, the pressing question for our family, and probably yours as well, is: when can we visit?
Well, like everything related to COVID-19 and the past year, it’s complicated. The first step is getting the vaccine. According to NBC News, essential workers and individuals over the age of 65 are next in line for the vaccine after health care workers. This recent change lowered the previous age requirement from 75 and over. It’s also worth noting that essential workers encompass a much larger group than one might think. The Wall Street Journal reports that there are around 87 million essential workers, excluding those over 75 unless they also work in essential roles, such as in grocery stores or as teachers. Thus, when Grandma and Grandpa will receive the vaccine remains uncertain, but it should happen within the next few months.
Dr. Lisa Tran, an emergency physician and visiting professor at a prominent university, recently spoke with CNN about when grandparents might be able to visit the grandkids without masks or social distancing. Her insights focused on managing risk.
Dr. Tran explained that there is a lot to consider beyond just when grandparents will get vaccinated. For instance, the vaccine requires two doses. “There may be some immunity after the first dose, but we don’t fully know how effective it is and how long it lasts,” she said. With both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, there’s a wait of several weeks for the second dose (three weeks for Pfizer and four weeks for Moderna). But wait, there’s more! “After the second dose, it typically takes another two to three weeks to develop optimal immunity,” Dr. Tran added. So, in total, you’re looking at five to six weeks after the first dose.
Even after receiving both doses, the vaccine is only 95% effective. While that’s an impressive level of protection—I’d still go through a necessary medical procedure if there was just a 5% risk involved—it’s important to acknowledge that there is still a small chance of contracting the virus post-vaccination. However, Dr. Tran reassures us that if you do contract COVID-19 after being vaccinated, the likelihood of severe illness requiring hospitalization is significantly reduced, which is great news.
Despite this positive outlook, experts are still uncertain whether vaccinated individuals can carry and spread the virus to others. This uncertainty is where many families face challenges. The New York Times reported that while vaccines are effective shields against severe illness, they may not prevent transmission effectively.
Take my partner, for example. In late 2020, she spent three weeks in the hospital due to a severe case of pneumonia that escalated to septic shock. It wasn’t COVID-19, but now her doctor has indicated she is at high risk for complications from the virus. If her parents were to get fully vaccinated and waited for full immunity before visiting, they would likely be protected from the virus. However, there remains a risk that they could carry and transmit the virus to my partner, which could be problematic given her recent health issues.
So, what does this mean for grandparent visits? According to Dr. Anthony Fauci and Newsweek, an estimated 70 to 85 percent of Americans will need to be vaccinated to see a “dramatic decrease” in COVID-19 cases and achieve herd immunity. This means roughly 230 to 279 million people in the U.S. need to be vaccinated — that’s a significant number.
Dr. Tran is personally looking forward to having her father visit from Vancouver in the summer or early fall of 2021. While that may seem far off, especially in the slow-moving timeline of COVID-19, it’s a date we can mark on our calendars—something we haven’t been able to do for several months.
Ultimately, it boils down to assessing risks. You need to evaluate factors like age, medical history, and how many family members are vaccinated before deciding to visit. But rest assured, relief is on the horizon, and soon those grandkids will be able to enjoy some much-needed (and safe) snuggles with their grandparents. They’ve certainly got lost time to make up for.
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