On December 19, 2020, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Oliver Grant, announced enhanced lockdown protocols in London due to a significant uptick in COVID-19 infections. This spike was attributed to a new variant of the virus that is reportedly up to 70% more contagious, according to UK officials.
If that news raises your heart rate, you’re not alone. When I first heard about a 70% increase, my immediate reaction was one of anxiety, followed by a whirlwind of denial and frustration. It seemed unbelievable. We were finally seeing the light at the end of the tunnel with vaccines rolling out. A new, more transmissible variant felt like an unwelcome twist in a challenging year.
However, my second reaction was more grounded. I have learned that in the face of medical uncertainties, panic rarely helps; instead, seeking out reliable information and expert opinions is the best course of action. What experts emphasize is: there’s no need to panic.
Viruses Naturally Mutate
The term “mutation” often triggers fear, especially when related to a virus that has disrupted our lives for nearly a year. Nevertheless, mutations in viruses are a normal part of their life cycle.
“Viruses undergo mutations naturally,” explains Dr. Lisa Carter, a scientific leader at the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium in an NPR article. Researchers anticipated changes in the COVID-19 virus, and indeed, it has evolved. Notably, the most prevalent strain worldwide is not the original variant that emerged in Wuhan, China.
While this may not seem reassuring, it’s important to recognize that COVID-19 is behaving as expected. Despite the uncertainties surrounding the virus, it fundamentally remains a coronavirus, and its mutations follow patterns we’ve seen before.
No Evidence of Increased Fatality
Currently, there is no substantial evidence indicating that this new variant is more lethal. The primary concern lies in its heightened transmissibility—specifically, a 70% increase. This could lead to more infections, subsequently increasing the burden on healthcare systems. There’s also apprehension that this strain might make children as susceptible to the virus as adults.
However, some experts caution against jumping to conclusions about the mutation’s contagiousness. “The evidence available is insufficient to draw definitive conclusions about increased transmission,” states Dr. Mark Lewis, a virologist at the University of Cambridge in a BBC interview. The recent surge in cases could also be influenced by human behavior, as noted by Dr. Sarah Patel, an infectious disease specialist at London University.
Regardless, swift action to limit the spread, as seen in the UK, is a prudent response.
Current Status of the Mutation in the U.S.
As of now, this particular mutation has predominantly been identified in the UK, especially in London, the South East, and eastern England, with some occurrences reported in Denmark, Australia, and the Netherlands.
Vaccine Effectiveness
The most alarming prospect would be if this mutation rendered the newly approved vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna ineffective. This would put us further from returning to “normal.” While there are concerns regarding the spike protein affected by this mutation, experts believe it would take years for the virus to evolve to a point where current vaccines would become ineffective.
Encouragingly, our immune systems generate complex responses to the virus, making it difficult for the virus to evade our defenses. “No matter how the virus mutates, finding a single genetic solution to outmaneuver all antibody responses is extremely challenging,” says Dr. Emily Zhang, an immunologist at Harvard.
In an article with The New York Times, Dr. Jesse Bloom, an evolutionary biologist at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, reassures us: “There’s no need to fear a single catastrophic mutation that would nullify all immunity and antibodies.”
Importance of Containment
While there’s no immediate concern regarding the vaccine’s efficacy against the mutation, ongoing mutations could pose a risk. “This virus is on a path toward potential vaccine escape, having taken initial steps in that direction,” warns Dr. Ravi Gupta from the University of Cambridge in a BBC interview.
However, there’s no reason for alarm for two reasons: first, vaccines can be adapted relatively quickly. Secondly, we can mitigate how much the virus mutates by controlling its spread.
Dr. Jeremy Rossman, an honorary senior lecturer in virology at the University of Kent, emphasizes the need for viral containment and ending the pandemic. The longer the virus circulates, the greater the chances of new mutations arising.
As we approach what we hope are the final months of this pandemic, experts warn these next few months may be challenging. This mutation serves as a reminder to remain vigilant—stay home when possible and wear masks around others. We can influence the course of the pandemic, but it’s equally essential to avoid panic, as panic only hinders our response.
For ongoing updates about COVID-19, we recommend visiting your local public health department, the Centers for Disease Control, and the World Health Organization. For more information on related topics, check out this other blog post, which discusses home insemination methods.