“What will this summer look like?” A friend posed this question back in March when I expressed my reluctance for a socially-distanced meetup. At that time, my answer was that logically, not much would change, but emotionally, it would feel different. Now, however, I would agree to a socially-distanced visit, simply because it feels different.
Perhaps it’s because we’re starting to grasp how this virus spreads, allowing us to better manage the risks—even though many uncertainties remain. Maybe it’s because COVID-19 cases were high but have since decreased in my area (though they haven’t disappeared), and the slower rate of infection makes risk more manageable. Or maybe it’s due to the shift in communication I’ve noticed; emails have transitioned from “here’s our COVID-19 response” to “here’s our reopening plan.”
Most likely, it’s the realization that, despite the initial optimism surrounding various vaccine trials, COVID-19 is here to stay for the foreseeable future. This is a tough pill to swallow, but as states begin to reopen, we must redefine what “living” means for ourselves and our communities. We have to assess what level of risk we are willing to accept and how we can manage it.
This leads to increasingly frequent choices: If summer camps open, should I send my children? What if schools resume? Can I trust them to safely ride bikes with a neighbor? Is it wise to hire a babysitter a few hours a week? As a single parent overwhelmed by juggling work, homeschooling, and caring for two stir-crazy kids, I’ve found myself wrestling with these decisions and often making inconsistent choices. One moment, a family hike with grandparents, masked and spaced apart, feels safe; the next, a playdate where kids draw with chalk seems dangerously risky. Each decision feels monumental—sometimes it feels like choosing between merely existing and truly living.
Emily Johnson, an economics professor, recently shared a practical risk assessment system for navigating these COVID-19 decisions. This framework is just what I needed. At its core, Johnson’s approach emphasizes a risk-benefit analysis, acknowledging that there won’t be a universal answer for every scenario.
Johnson’s Five-Step Model
Her five-step model consists of: (1) framing the question, (2) mitigating risk, (3) evaluating risk, (4) assessing benefits, and (5) making a decision.
Framing the question is arguably the most challenging step. Johnson states that you must specify what you are contemplating and consider the alternatives. For example, she poses the question, “Should I send my child back to daycare when it opens next week?” The answer hinges on whether the alternative is delaying by a month, waiting until September, or not sending them again until a vaccine is available. Narrowing down your options can clarify your thinking and expose any gaps in your assessment.
Once you’ve framed your question, if uncertainty still lingers, Johnson advises considering risk mitigation: what’s the safest way to proceed with your plan? We now know more about COVID-19 transmissibility than we did in March. Masks are crucial, and outdoor interactions are typically less risky than indoor ones.
Next, the risk for each individual involved needs to be evaluated. Johnson suggests the formula: “Chance someone is infected x Chance of spread x Chance of serious illness or death.” While this formula isn’t flawless—it relies on general statistics and doesn’t account for the unpredictable nature of the virus—assessing the odds is essential, even if it feels daunting.
After weighing risks, it’s vital to consider the benefits. If the risks are relatively low but the benefits substantial, the decision may become clearer.
The reality is that we will coexist with this virus for an extended period, and that’s a daunting thought. As I write this, COVID-19 has taken more than 100,000 lives in the United States. Some who have recovered continue to experience long-term effects, and new risks seem to arise regularly, such as multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children. However, as a solo parent, I realize that strict quarantine isn’t a sustainable solution. I must accept some level of risk for the immeasurable benefit of alleviating the burdens I’ve carried since early March.
I understand that for many, the risk-benefit analysis may always conclude that the risks outweigh any potential benefits. I also recognize the privilege involved in my ability to make such choices, particularly since my job allows me to homeschool. While applying this risk assessment system is a personal endeavor, I acknowledge that our individual decisions significantly impact our collective response to the virus. Each decision carries weight, and we are part of a larger community.
There is still so much we do not understand about COVID-19. Information is constantly evolving; our understanding changes weekly. Consequently, my decisions may remain inconsistent as I adapt my risk-benefit analysis to new information. Nevertheless, having a structured method to guide my thoughts has provided the clarity I needed to plan for the future.
For more insights, you might find this blog post helpful: Home Insemination Kit. Similarly, Make a Mom offers excellent resources on this topic, and the CDC is a valuable source of information regarding pregnancy and home insemination.
Summary
Navigating COVID-19 decisions requires a structured risk assessment framework. By framing the question, evaluating risks and benefits, and mitigating potential dangers, individuals can make informed choices about their family’s safety. As we continue to live with this virus, understanding our own risk tolerance and its societal implications is vital.