Back in July, three planes crashed within just eight days. I distinctly recall the wave of anxious Facebook posts following the third incident, with people exclaiming, “What is happening up there?!” The timing couldn’t have been worse for me—I was set to fly to San Francisco the very next day, and the chatter about flying being “riskier than we thought” was raising my anxiety levels.
Should I have been concerned? Is it alarming enough to consider flying becoming more dangerous with three crashes in such a short time? According to Dr. Ryan Whitaker, an expert in risk analysis from Cambridge University, not at all. Though it may seem improbable, statistics reveal that experiencing three plane crashes in eight days is actually quite likely to occur at least once within a ten-year span—about a 60% chance.
What Does True Randomness Look Like?
Here’s the kicker: real randomness doesn’t appear the way we expect it to. Any genuinely random event is bound to create clusters (for a fascinating statistical breakdown, check out this link). Just as stars in the night sky form clusters despite being randomly distributed, plane crashes can also sporadically happen near each other. When Apple first launched the iPod Shuffle, users complained that its “random shuffle” feature was too predictable—sometimes playing the same song back-to-back. Apple’s blunder was making their shuffle function truly random, which meant it didn’t consider the recent plays. They eventually adjusted it to seem less random, so users would feel it was actually more random. Talk about a wild ride!
Why Do We Misinterpret Randomness?
Those worried Facebook posts reveal more about human nature than they do about flying risks. Why are we so poor at recognizing true randomness? Why do we insist on spotting patterns and clusters, often leading us to suspect foul play? One reason is our brain’s innate wiring to seek patterns—even where none exist. Moreover, we often attribute intention to random events, believing that unforeseen occurrences must stem from some sort of planning or causation.
There’s a compelling evolutionary rationale for this tendency. Imagine living thousands of years ago and hearing a rustling in the bushes nearby. Is it a predator or just the wind? If you panic and run away only to find out it was just a breeze—or worse, a friendly neighbor playing a prank—you might feel a bit foolish. On the other hand, if you stick around and it turns out to be a predator, well… let’s just say, the outcome won’t be in your favor. Clearly, it’s the more cautious individuals who are likely to survive and pass on their somewhat neurotic genes.
Another reason we struggle to perceive randomness is our inclination to concentrate on clusters while ignoring the broader context. If you roll a die five times and get five sixes, it seems astonishing. But if you roll it a thousand times and see five sixes at some point, that’s much less shocking. If your dating strategy involves randomly picking someone from the street and you find your perfect match on the first try, it’s easy to believe in fate. However, if it takes you years of awkward encounters to find that perfect person, you might see the bigger picture. It’s all about perspective—while the stars may have aligned for you, statistically speaking, a match was bound to happen eventually.
It’s understandable that humans evolved to perceive clusters within randomness and craft elaborate explanations for seemingly random events. While this tendency was advantageous in a hostile ancestral environment, it might be more detrimental today. For me, it definitely made my fear of flying much worse than warranted that day.
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Summary
Our brains are wired to spot patterns, often leading to misconceptions about randomness. This tendency, while useful in ancient survival scenarios, can cause unnecessary anxiety in modern situations, like flying. Understanding true randomness helps put our fears into perspective.